Housing Costs Too High? More Crime Is The Answer

Best way to counter rising housing prices: rising violent crime.

Thus far in 2007 murders are up year over year by almost 10 percent, according to the Metropolitan police, which tends to underreport its numbers. In 2007, murders were down as seen here and here. For first time in decades there were less than 200 murders in the city.

But crime is the Achilles heel of the DC renaissance. All the condos in NOMA will empty. All the families in Dupont Circle will move to suburbs. The retail in Columbia Heights will have unsold merch, if crime comes back.

True, things are far, far better than they were in the 1980s and 1990s. But the DC renaisance has been depended on falling crime rates as much as anything else. Let's keep an eye on this ball.

DC Holds 75 Meetings with Retailers

The city held 75-plus meetings with retailers at the International Council of Shopping Centers' annual convention last week, the WashTimes said. Retailers and restaurateurs cited the trifecta of high education levels, high income and high growth as the reason they wanted to be in the District.

For instance, DC is in talks with Nordstrom about opening in G-Town. That would be a coup.

Four Buck Gas Good for DC

and every other urban area in the country. "We love it out here, plus we are only 25 miles from Dupont Circle" say many suburbanites.

Well with traffic congestion suburban life now means more time in your car and with rising gasoline prices that means more money for the daily drive on 66, 95 or whatever interstate you pick. Moreover, the extra cost per square foot of that condo can now be more easily offset because of historicly high gasoline prices.

Of course, no one is going to move their settled family of four from Loudon to DC because of the high price of fuel. But if a family -- particularly a family of one -- is deciding where to live, the relative impact of commuting costs has changed as long as gasoline prices stay high. The way SUV sales are down, the prices of DC homes and condos tends to go up, all else being equal as the economists say.

True enough the price will settle down after driving season is over, but the high price is contributing to the DC renaissance. No doubt about it.

Murder Capital Becomes Robber-Town

First the good news: Murders are down by about 13% May 17, 06 vs. May 17, 05.

Now the bad: Robberies are up. For the third consecutive month robberies were up and the year-to-date total is up almost 10 percent in 2006 compared with 2005. As of April there were 1,177 robberies year to date. And they are up almost 19 percent for the month of April year over year.

The changing crime mix from headline-grabbing, drug-driven double and triple homicides to plain-old stick ups is one bad aspect of DC becoming more affluent, which of course is a good thing.

But does the growing trend of more robberies threaten the DC revival?

If we trade, the moniker murder capital for robber-town or whatever in the headlines there is the risk that people will be scared away. Part of the reason, the DC market was undervalued all those years was the high murder rate, but a high robbery rate would be just as bad for reviving the city and for property values. Greater visibility by the Metropolitan Police Department seems like part of the answer and that means the cops have to get out of their cruisers and walk the streets.